Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.